Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
68° to 69°
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
66° to 67°
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$910
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum temperature
Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jun 26, 2026?: 68° to 69°
KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN26-B68.5
Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jun 26, 2026?: 70° to 71°
KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN26-B70.5
Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jun 26, 2026?: 66° to 67°
KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN26-B66.5
Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jun 26, 2026?: 64° to 65°
KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN26-B64.5
Will the maximum temperature be <64° on Jun 26, 2026?: 63° or below
KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN26-T64
Analysis
This market reflects expectations about maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 in a specific location. The 34% probability for 70–71° reflects distributed market opinion across five temperature bands, with most traders placing roughly equal weight across a narrow range from 66–73°. Historical weather patterns, seasonal norms for late April, and any available climate forecasts (typically reliable only 10–14 days out) drive current pricing. The outcome will be determined by actual atmospheric conditions and measurement on April 21, 2026—the only event that fully resolves the question. Until that date, traders adjust positions based on updated forecasts and anomalies in nearby weather patterns that might shift expectations higher or lower.
- ›The median-priced outcome (70–71° at 34%) occupies the middle of the five-band range, suggesting balanced uncertainty rather than consensus toward extreme temperatures
- ›Lower-temperature bands (66–67°) trade significantly cheaper (5¢) than mid-range outcomes, indicating traders assign materially lower probability to cooler April conditions
- ›The >73° outcome carries only 6¢ pricing despite being a valid result, showing broad market skepticism of exceptionally warm temperatures in late April
- ›Volume concentration in the 72–73° band ($1,014 in 24-hour volume) suggests active disagreement about whether outcomes skew warmer or cooler than the current leader
- ›April 21 sits in late spring for most Northern Hemisphere locations; seasonal climate data and any available extended forecasts (beyond 10 days prior) would anchor initial position-setting
Recently closed in climate
- Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84.2last 89% · 1d
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 7d
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on recordlast 85% · 7d
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 14d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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