Will the minimum temperature be <60° on Apr 22, 2026

Analysis

This market is pricing the probability that May 24, 2026 will see a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in a specific location at 33%, making it the single most likely outcome. The distribution across temperature bands suggests moderate confidence in mild late-spring conditions, with roughly equal weight on slightly cooler (66–67°F) and slightly warmer (70–71°F) scenarios. The market would shift upward if long-range forecasts trend toward sustained warmth, or downward if cold-air patterns or weather systems develop in the weeks leading up to May 24. Resolution occurs on the actual measurement date when the daily minimum temperature is recorded, eliminating all uncertainty about which band applies.

• ›Current contract prices show 68–69°F as the plurality outcome (34¢), but alternatives span 66–67°F (25¢) and 70–71°F (17¢), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
• ›Trading volume is light ($35–156 in 24h across contracts), suggesting limited analyst conviction and potential for repricing as the date approaches
• ›Temperature bands are narrow (1–2°F ranges), making outcomes sensitive to small shifts in weather patterns and requiring precise measurement rather than broad directional calls
• ›The market is pricing roughly equal probability mass for conditions cooler than 68°F (~34¢) versus warmer than 69°F (~21¢), with below-66°F outcomes assigned very low probability (9¢)
• ›Long-range forecasts and seasonal anomaly data become more reliable 2–3 weeks before May 24, likely to trigger contract repricing as model confidence increases

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds