Will the minimum temperature be 43-44° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 40% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
50° to 51°
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
52° to 53°
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 48-49° on May 9, 2026?: 48° to 49°
KXLOWTNYC-26MAY09-B48.5
Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on May 9, 2026?: 52° to 53°
KXLOWTNYC-26MAY09-B52.5
Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on May 9, 2026?: 50° to 51°
KXLOWTNYC-26MAY09-B50.5
Will the minimum temperature be 54-55° on May 9, 2026?: 54° to 55°
KXLOWTNYC-26MAY09-B54.5
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.