Will the minimum temperature be 43-44° on Apr 22, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 45% probability that the minimum temperature on June 15, 2026, will fall between 43–44°F. The current market leader predicts 63–64°F for that date, suggesting traders expect significantly warmer conditions. Temperature forecasts this far out rely heavily on seasonal climate patterns and historical averages for mid-June rather than precise meteorological models, which have limited skill beyond 10–14 days. The probability reflects uncertainty inherent in long-range weather prediction, where broad seasonal trends dominate but day-to-day variability remains substantial. The June 15 outcome will be determined by actual observed minimum temperature data on that date.

• ›The leading contract prices 63–64°F at 45%, indicating the market expects mid-June lows well above the 43–44°F band, reflecting typical warming patterns for that season
• ›Long-range weather forecasts (90+ days out) have limited skill; probabilities largely reflect climatological frequency of different temperature bands rather than specific atmospheric patterns
• ›The resolution depends on officially recorded minimum temperature data on June 15, 2026—a single, objective measurement that will definitively settle all contracts
• ›Historical temperature variability and regional climate trends for mid-June will anchor trader expectations, as deterministic weather models lose predictive power beyond two weeks
• ›Trading volume is relatively low across most outcomes ($49–$986 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market depth and potential for probability shifts as new traders enter

What moved the line

• Jul 1171° to 72°↑6pp27→33¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 1169° to 70°↑6pp26→32¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 1167° to 68°↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds