Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 37% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
65° to 66°
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
63° to 64°
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum temperature
Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Jun 26, 2026?: 61° to 62°
KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN26-B61.5
Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Jun 26, 2026?: 63° to 64°
KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN26-B63.5
Will the maximum temperature be >68° on Jun 26, 2026?: 69° or above
KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN26-T68
Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Jun 26, 2026?: 67° to 68°
KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN26-B67.5
Will the maximum temperature be 65-66° on Jun 26, 2026?: 65° to 66°
KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN26-B65.5
Analysis
This prediction represents the likelihood that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach between 62-63°F on April 21, 2026. Currently priced at 43%, this reflects moderate confidence that this temperature range will occur. The price is influenced by seasonal weather patterns for late April and historical temperature distributions for this date. Warmer-than-average spring conditions would lower this probability, while cooler or more typical spring weather would increase it. The resolution will depend on actual recorded maximum temperatures on April 21, 2026, which cannot be known until that date arrives. Early spring weather trends and forecast models as mid-April approaches will be the primary drivers of probability changes before resolution.
- ›This is priced at 43%, meaning the 65-66°F outcome (34¢) is currently favored over the 62-63°F range, with cooler bands at 8¢ and 13¢ representing lower probability tails
- ›Historical April 21st temperature data and normal seasonal averages for this location determine baseline expectations before any weather forecasting
- ›Spring weather can shift significantly; sustained warmer trends or cooler patterns will predictably move this contract's price up or down as April approaches
- ›The contract resolves on a specific date (April 21, 2026) with no ambiguity once actual temperature readings are recorded
- ›Volume concentration in the 63-64°F band ($592 24h) and 65-66°F band ($513 24h) suggests most trader interest clusters around temperate outcomes rather than extremes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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