Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $450 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Leader sits at 94% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
below $750
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
below $700
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 25, 2027
161 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $750 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?: below $750
KXMACBOOKPRICE-26-750
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $700 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?: below $700
KXMACBOOKPRICE-26-700
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $550 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?: below $550
KXMACBOOKPRICE-26-550
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $500 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?: below $500
KXMACBOOKPRICE-26-500
Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $450 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?: below $450
KXMACBOOKPRICE-26-450
Analysis
This question asks whether Apple's lowest-priced MacBook will cost less than $450 when checked on November 27, 2026. Currently priced at 45%, the market suggests this is unlikely but not ruled out. Apple's entry-level MacBook Air typically starts around $1,099, though periodic discounts, education pricing, or refurbished models sometimes reach lower levels. The outcome depends on whether Apple introduces a new budget MacBook model, whether Black Friday promotions (occurring around that date) create significant discounts, or whether the company repositions its product lineup. The main uncertainties are Apple's strategic pricing decisions over the next five months and the depth of holiday season discounting in late November.
- ›Apple's current entry-level MacBook Air starts at $1,099; reaching below $450 would require either a new budget model release or unprecedented discounting
- ›Black Friday and Cyber Monday occur immediately before the November 27 resolution date, making holiday promotions the most likely mechanism for achieving sub-$450 pricing
- ›Historical precedent shows Apple rarely discounts MacBooks below 20-25% of retail price, making sub-$450 pricing structurally difficult unless a new lower-tier model launches
- ›Refurbished and education pricing channels exist but are typically not listed as the lowest price on Apple.com's primary storefront
- ›Any new MacBook announcement or product lineup refresh between now and November 2026 would directly impact pricing outcomes
What moved the line
- Sep 10below $750↓19pp65→46¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11below $750↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11below $700↓16pp90→74¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12below $750↓10pp28→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11below $550↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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