Will SpaceX report Above 12.5 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 12.5 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 13 million
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$38
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 4, 2027
143 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX report Above 1
Will SpaceX report Above 15 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 15 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-15000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 15.5 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 15.5 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-15500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 14.5 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 14.5 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-14500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 14 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 14 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-14000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 13.5 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 13.5 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-13500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 13 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 13 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-13000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 12.5 million starlink active subscribers in Q3 2026?: Above 12.5 million
KXSPCX-26NOVSUBS-12500000.0
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that SpaceX will report more than 12.5 million active Starlink subscribers by the end of Q3 2026. The 94% probability reflects confidence in reaching this threshold, though it declines sharply at higher subscriber counts (84% for 13.5 million, 68% for 14 million), suggesting uncertainty about growth velocity. Key drivers include Starlink's historical subscriber growth trajectory, competitive pressure from other satellite internet providers, regional adoption rates, and service reliability perception. The market will resolve when SpaceX releases official Q3 2026 financial results or subscriber counts, typically in late October or early November 2026. The tight clustering of probabilities across contracts indicates market participants view modest subscriber growth as most likely, rather than explosive expansion or stagnation.
- ›SpaceX's Q2 2026 subscriber count and reported quarterly growth rate prior to Q3 resolution
- ›Competitive dynamics from rival satellite internet services and terrestrial broadband availability in key markets
- ›Service outages, regulatory actions, or major coverage expansions announced between now and Q3 2026 earnings release
- ›Regional adoption patterns in underserved areas where Starlink has concentrated deployment efforts
- ›Historical growth rates and whether SpaceX maintains, accelerates, or decelerates subscriber additions relative to recent quarters
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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