Will MegaETH launch a token by ___
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027
Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?: Arc
KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC
Cluster 2
Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027
Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?: Exponent
KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-EXPO
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that MegaETH will introduce a native token before year-end 2026. The 43% level sits between two related projects: Arc at 58% and Exponent at 28%, suggesting moderate confidence in token launch timing. The main driver of current probability is MegaETH's public development roadmap and any announced timelines for tokenization. Prices would shift upward if the team publicly commits to a launch date or moves forward with token smart contract audits; they would shift downward if development delays accumulate or the team deprioritizes tokenization. The critical resolution point will be actual token deployment on-chain before December 31, 2026, which would provide definitive clarity on execution. Market participants are essentially betting whether engineering and regulatory steps align before year's end.
- ›MegaETH's published roadmap status and any official token launch date announcements as of mid-2026
- ›Comparison pricing to Arc (58%) and Exponent (28%) tokens suggests market perceives MegaETH as medium-probability relative to peer projects
- ›Historical track record of similar protocols meeting tokenization timelines and regulatory approvals within comparable timeframes
- ›On-chain smart contract deployment or audits for token contracts as leading indicators of imminent launch
- ›Any material delays in core development milestones that would push token work further into 2027
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (42% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In crypto
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.