Will Mike Trout win AL CPOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$43
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Trout win AL CPOTY
Will Mike Trout win AL CPOTY?: Mike Trout
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-MTRO
Cluster 2
Will Yordan Alvarez win AL CPOTY
Will Yordan Alvarez win AL CPOTY?: Yordan Alvarez
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-YALV
Cluster 3
Will Anthony Volpe win AL CPOTY
Will Anthony Volpe win AL CPOTY?: Anthony Volpe
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-AVOL
Cluster 4
Will Royce Lewis win AL CPOTY
Will Royce Lewis win AL CPOTY?: Royce Lewis
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-RLEW
Cluster 5
Will Kristian Campbell win AL CPOTY
Will Kristian Campbell win AL CPOTY?: Kristian Campbell
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-KCAM
Cluster 6
Will Zack Gelof win AL CPOTY
Will Zack Gelof win AL CPOTY?: Zack Gelof
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-ZGEL
Cluster 7
Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL CPOTY
Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL CPOTY?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXMLBALCPOTY-26-TIE
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment of Mike Trout winning the American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 season. At 15%, the market implies significant skepticism about Trout's chances, likely reflecting uncertainty about his injury status, recovery trajectory, and whether he'll accumulate sufficient playing time to qualify for the award consideration. The main factors driving this low probability are the historical rarity of star players winning CPOTY and questions about whether Trout would be deemed the league's most impressive comeback story relative to other candidates. The resolution depends entirely on full-season performance metrics and voting outcomes by sports writers and official bodies following the 2026 MLB regular season in September-October 2026. Market participants would reassess based on spring training reports, early season performance data, and injury updates throughout the season.
- ›Mike Trout's actual playing time and availability during the 2026 regular season will directly affect his eligibility and award consideration
- ›The strength and narrative appeal of competing AL players' comeback stories will determine whether Trout's narrative ranks first among all candidates
- ›Official medical reports and team statements on Trout's health status and expected return timing will shift market expectations as the season progresses
- ›Voting criteria and historical voting patterns for the Comeback Player of the Year award may favor less prominent players or different recovery narratives
- ›Early-season statistical performance (if available) will provide concrete data on Trout's functional recovery rather than speculation
What moved the line
- May 6Yordan Alvarez↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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