Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029
Leader sits at 92% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2031
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Before Nov 1, 2030
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$637
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2030?: Before May 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-30MAY01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?: Before Aug 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-29AUG01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030?: Before Nov 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-30NOV01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2030?: Before Aug 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-30AUG01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029?: Before Nov 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-29NOV01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-28NOV01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2031?: Before Nov 1, 2031
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-31NOV01
Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029?: Before May 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-RCHOLOWSKY-29MAY01
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Roch Cholowsky will play in an MLB game before August 1, 2029—roughly three years from now. The 92% price reflects confidence he'll reach the majors within this timeframe, though the declining odds across earlier deadlines (68% for May 2029, 69% for November 2029) suggest uncertainty about the specific timing of his debut. Key drivers include his current minor league trajectory, development pace, and team roster decisions. The most immediate catalyst would be any official call-up or sustained demotion that clarifies his pathway to MLB play. The gap between the August 2029 contract (92%) and May 2029 (68%) indicates traders expect his debut more likely in the second half of 2029 than the first half.
- ›Current status and organizational depth: Whether Cholowsky is trending toward or away from MLB readiness in his team's developmental pipeline
- ›Injury history and performance trends: Any recent injuries, rehab assignments, or sustained performance slumps that would delay or accelerate a call-up
- ›Roster turnover and competitive window: Whether his team will have roster space and motivation to promote him by the deadline
- ›Minor league statistics and recent promotions: Concrete performance data showing progression through successive minor league levels
- ›Official team statements or roster moves: Any public indication of call-up timing or organizational plans for his development
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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