Will Any Halftime Performer perform Boy With Luv at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium
Leader sits at 86% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Dai Dai
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
2.0
Spread
80pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Any Halftime Performer perform
Will Any Halftime Performer perform 2.0 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: 2.0
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-20
Will Any Halftime Performer perform GIRL LIKE ME at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: GIRL LIKE ME
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-GIR
Will Any Halftime Performer perform FYA at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: FYA
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-FYA
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Fix You at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Fix You
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-FIX
Will Any Halftime Performer perform FAKE LOVE at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: FAKE LOVE
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-FAK
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Dynamite at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Dynamite
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-DYN
Will Any Halftime Performer perform DAISIES at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: DAISIES
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-DAIS
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Dai Dai at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Dai Dai
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-DAI
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Clocks at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Clocks
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-CLO
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Chantaje at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Chantaje
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-CHA
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Can't Remember to Forget You at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Can't Remember to Forget You
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-CAN
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Butter at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Butter
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BUT
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Bring Your Love at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Bring Your Love
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BRI
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Boy With Luv at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Boy With Luv
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BOY
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Body to Body at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Body to Body
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BOD
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Beauty And A Beat at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Beauty And A Beat
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BEA
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Baby at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Baby
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-BAB
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Aliens at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Aliens
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-ALI
Will Any Halftime Performer perform Adventure of a Lifetime at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Adventure of a Lifetime
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-ADV
Will Any Halftime Performer perform 4 Minutes at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: 4 Minutes
KXWCFINALSONGS-26JUL20-4MI
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the song "Boy With Luv" will be performed by at least one halftime performer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. The 86% probability suggests strong confidence in this outcome, likely driven by the song's global popularity and the performer lineup's typical inclusion of well-known tracks. The main factor affecting this probability would be the official announcement of the halftime performers and their confirmed setlist, which typically occurs days before the event. Secondary factors include artist choice, time constraints within the 12-15 minute typical halftime window, and whether the song fits the theme or narrative the performers intend to create. Uncertainty would decline significantly once organizers release the final performer roster and any pre-event promotional materials that hint at song selection. The event occurs in one week, making resolution imminent.
- ›Official halftime performer announcement has not yet occurred; the identity of performers determines setlist possibilities directly
- ›"Boy With Luv" is a collaborative track by BTS and Halsey released in 2019 with over 1 billion streams; broader appeal increases inclusion likelihood if either artist performs
- ›FIFA World Cup halftime shows typically feature 3-5 songs in a 12-15 minute window; fewer slots reduce probability of any specific song being selected
- ›The 86% market price implies near-consensus belief in performance, suggesting participants expect either the confirmed performers to include international or pop artists with incentive to perform the track
- ›Setlist confirmation usually occurs 3-7 days before the event; final performer announcement expected by July 15-17 would be the key resolution catalyst
What moved the line
- Jul 11Dai Dai↓6pp92→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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