SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Jul 21, 2026 · 11d

Will Drew Burress be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

58%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

58%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$5K

19 contracts

Closes

Jul 21, 2026

11 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 50% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 50% on 2026-07-10
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

14 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Jacob Lombard be a top” vs “Will Eric Booth Jr. be a top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Jacob Lombard be a top

2 contracts$380

Cluster 2

Will Eric Booth Jr. be a top

2 contracts$157

Cluster 3

Will Vahn Lackey be a top

2 contracts$45

Cluster 4

Will Grady Emerson be a top

2 contracts$17

Cluster 5

Will Jackson Flora be a top

2 contracts$15

Cluster 6

Will Chris Hacopian be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$2K

Cluster 7

Will Tyler Bell be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$1K

Cluster 8

Will Drew Burress be a top 5 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$788

Cluster 9

Will Gio Rojas be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$194

Cluster 10

Will Ryder Helfrick be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$176

Cluster 11

Will Zion Rose be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$76

Cluster 12

Will Derek Curiel be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$32

Cluster 13

Will Trevor Condon be a top 10 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Roch Cholowsky be a top 5 draft pick in 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates a 51% probability that Drew Burress will be selected in the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft. The near-even odds suggest uncertainty about whether he'll maintain his current projection or slip further down the board. Burress's final position depends on his performance during the remainder of the pre-draft process, including any remaining workouts, interviews, and medical evaluations conducted by NFL teams. The 2026 NFL Draft, scheduled for late April 2026, will resolve this question definitively. Teams' final draft decisions are driven by their specific needs, board rankings, and trade activity on draft day, making prediction challenging when probabilities are balanced this closely.

  • Drew Burress's performance metrics and film evaluation compared to other quarterback and skill position prospects in the 2026 class
  • Results from NFL Combine testing, Pro Days, and any private workouts conducted in the months leading to the draft
  • Trade activity and team positioning in the top 10, which determines how many available picks exist and what positions teams prioritize
  • Medical evaluations and any injury history or concerns that could cause teams to downgrade or pass on Burress
  • Declared intentions of teams holding top-10 picks regarding their draft priorities and publicly available mock draft consensus

What moved the line

  • Jul 5Jacob Lombard55pp8429¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 7Jacob Lombard54pp3286¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Tyler Bell46pp5812¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Grady Emerson37pp4683¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 5Vahn Lackey29pp9364¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.