3 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jan 8, 2027 · 244d

Will Columbus win the MLS Eastern Conference

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

11%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

11%

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$10

3 contracts

Closes

Jan 8, 2027

244 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 3 contracts · 21d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Miami win the MLS Eastern Conference

1 contract$10

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Miami win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Miami

KXMLSEAST-26-MIA

20¢+4pp$10K→

Cluster 2

Will New York City win the MLS Eastern Conference

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will New York City win the MLS Eastern Conference?: New York City

KXMLSEAST-26-NYC

4¢—$0K→

Cluster 3

Will Nashville win the MLS Eastern Conference

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Nashville win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Nashville

KXMLSEAST-26-NSH

8¢+11pp$0K→

What moved the line

May 7Nashville↑11pp7→18¢ · Kalshi
May 7Miami↑4pp8→12¢ · Kalshi
May 3Nashville↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
May 6Nashville↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.

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