Will Columbus win the MLS Eastern Conference
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chicago win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will Chicago win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Chicago
KXMLSEAST-26-CHI
Cluster 2
Will Miami win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will Miami win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Miami
KXMLSEAST-26-MIA
Cluster 3
Will Nashville win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will Nashville win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Nashville
KXMLSEAST-26-NSH
Cluster 4
Will Cincinnati win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will Cincinnati win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Cincinnati
KXMLSEAST-26-CIN
Cluster 5
Will Charlotte win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will Charlotte win the MLS Eastern Conference?: Charlotte
KXMLSEAST-26-CLT
Cluster 6
Will New York City win the MLS Eastern Conference
Will New York City win the MLS Eastern Conference?: New York City
KXMLSEAST-26-NYC
Analysis
The 13% probability reflects market expectations that Columbus will win the 2026 MLS Eastern Conference championship. This assessment is based on Columbus's current position in the competitive eastern division, where multiple teams—particularly Miami at 36% and Nashville at 19%—are viewed as stronger contenders. The probability would move higher if Columbus demonstrates improved performance through strong regular-season results, successful roster moves, or reduced injuries to key players. Conversely, it would decline if the team underperforms or top-tier rivals consolidate their advantages. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the regular season (running through fall 2026) and culminates with the playoffs. Market pricing suggests Columbus faces an uphill path compared to established eastern powers, though the 13% figure indicates meaningful but limited championship viability.
- ›Miami holds 36% championship probability, more than 2.5x Columbus's 13%, indicating significant market preference for the top-tier contender
- ›Columbus's 13% sits between Cincinnati (8%) and Nashville (19%), placing the team in mid-tier competitive positioning among eastern clubs
- ›No recent volume trades ($0 in 24h volume across most contracts) suggests limited ongoing market activity and potential staleness in probability assessment
- ›Columbus would need sustained winning records over 30+ regular season matches to materially shift playoff odds and championship probability upward
- ›Conference structure includes six tracked teams with probabilities totaling less than 100%, indicating remaining probability distributed among non-tracked eastern clubs
What moved the line
- Aug 23Miami↓8pp43→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Nashville↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Nashville↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Chicago↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Nashville↓3pp24→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 4d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 5d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 6d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 6d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.