Will Luka Doncic win MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2028
720 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jayson Tatum win MVP
Will Jayson Tatum win MVP?: Jayson Tatum
KXNBAMVP-27-JTATUM0
Cluster 2
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP?: Victor Wembanyama
KXNBAMVP-27-VWEMBANYAMA1
Cluster 3
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
KXNBAMVP-27-SGILGEOUSALEXANDER2
Cluster 4
Will Jalen Brunson win MVP
Will Jalen Brunson win MVP?: Jalen Brunson
KXNBAMVP-27-JBRUNSON11
Cluster 5
Will Luka Doncic win MVP
Will Luka Doncic win MVP?: Luka Doncic
KXNBAMVP-27-LDONCIC77
Cluster 6
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win MVP
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win MVP?: Giannis Antetokounmpo
KXNBAMVP-27-GANTETOKOUNMPO34
Cluster 7
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP?: Anthony Edwards
KXNBAMVP-27-AEDWARDS5
Cluster 8
Will Cade Cunningham win MVP
Will Cade Cunningham win MVP?: Cade Cunningham
KXNBAMVP-27-CCUNNINGHAM2
Analysis
At 14%, the market assesses Luka Doncic's probability of winning the 2026-27 NBA MVP award as relatively low compared to peers like Victor Wembanyama (31%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (14%). This probability reflects expectations about performance during the upcoming season, which begins in October 2026. The low odds likely stem from recent historical context: Doncic has won MVP once (2024) while Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander represent emerging peak performers. Doncic's probability would rise if he demonstrates statistical dominance early in the 2026-27 season or if competing players face injury. The main resolution point is the regular season itself, with voting occurring in April 2027. Current market depth appears limited, with only $218 in 24-hour volume on Doncic's contract.
- ›Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander are trading at 31¢ and 14¢ respectively, suggesting the market views them as primary MVP contenders heading into 2026-27
- ›Doncic won MVP in 2024 and typically voters consider recent winners less favorably, which may partially explain the 14% pricing
- ›The 2026-27 season begins in October 2026 and MVP voting concludes in April 2027, providing a defined window for seasonal performance to accumulate
- ›Injury to competing candidates like Wembanyama or a breakout statistical season from Doncic would be the primary drivers of significant probability repricing
- ›Trading volume on Doncic's contract ($218 in 24 hours) is lower than Wembanyama ($512) and Gilgeous-Alexander ($1,148), indicating less market conviction or liquidity in this specific outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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