Will Luka Doncic win MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2028
632 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Luka Doncic win MVP
Will Luka Doncic win MVP?: Luka Doncic
KXNBAMVP-27-LDONCIC77
Cluster 2
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP
Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP?: Victor Wembanyama
KXNBAMVP-27-VWEMBANYAMA1
Cluster 3
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP
Will Anthony Edwards win MVP?: Anthony Edwards
KXNBAMVP-27-AEDWARDS5
Cluster 4
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
KXNBAMVP-27-SGILGEOUSALEXANDER2
Cluster 5
Will Nikola Jokić win MVP
Will Nikola Jokić win MVP?: Nikola Jokić
KXNBAMVP-27-NJOKIC15
Analysis
This 14% probability reflects market expectations that Luka Doncic will win the 2026-27 NBA MVP award. The relatively low odds compared to Victor Wembanyama (30%) suggest traders view Wembanyama's trajectory or current season performance more favorably, while Doncic faces competition from multiple contenders. Doncic's MVP chances hinge on his individual scoring efficiency, team win-loss record, and whether he can outpace the field across traditional counting stats and advanced metrics. The outcome depends largely on regular season performance through April 2027, with monthly statistical updates and playoff positioning providing intermediate signals of shifting probabilities.
- ›Doncic's points per game and shooting efficiency compared to Wembanyama and other top contenders during the 2026-27 regular season
- ›Dallas Mavericks' final win-loss record and seeding, which historically correlates with MVP voter preferences
- ›Individual statistical leaders in scoring, assists, and rebounds—Doncic's standing relative to peers in these categories by season's end
- ›Narrative momentum from media coverage and voter sentiment, which can shift substantially based on head-to-head matchups and playoff seeding outcomes
- ›The 24-hour trading volume ($2017) being substantially higher than most other MVP contracts, indicating this market has clearer pricing than alternatives
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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