Will at least 3 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season
Leader sits at 89% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ team
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
2+ teams
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
138 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 4 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 4+ teams
KXNCAAFACCWINS-26W10-4
Will at least 3 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams
KXNCAAFACCWINS-26W10-3
Will at least 2 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 2+ teams
KXNCAAFACCWINS-26W10-2
Will at least 1 team in the Atlantic Coast Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 1+ team
KXNCAAFACCWINS-26W10-1
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the ACC will produce at least three teams with 10+ regular-season wins during 2026. The market currently prices a single ACC team reaching 10 wins at 92%, two teams at 70%, but three teams at only 40%—a sharp dropoff suggesting meaningful uncertainty about conference depth. The ACC's competitive strength relative to other Power Four conferences directly drives these odds; strength-of-schedule disparities and injury timing across top programs will determine whether teams can accumulate the win totals needed. The regular season concludes in early December 2026, with bowl eligibility and final records locked in by year-end.
- ›Preseason rankings and recruiting classes for top ACC programs (Miami, SMU, Clemson, Virginia Tech) relative to their 2025 performance
- ›Scheduling strength variation within the ACC regular season—teams facing easier conference slates have higher win probability
- ›Historical ACC placement: the conference has produced 2-3 teams with 10+ wins in recent seasons; 2024 saw only 2 ACC teams reach this threshold
- ›Injury rates to starting quarterbacks and defensive key players by mid-season, which typically determine win-loss variance in competitive conferences
- ›Strength comparison between the ACC and competing Power Four conferences affecting preseason expectations and playoff positioning
What moved the line
- Aug 192+ teams↓31pp68→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 191+ team↑20pp54→74¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 181+ team↓15pp69→54¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 201+ team↑5pp74→79¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 202+ teams↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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