Will there be 3+ edges drafted 1st Round
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
4 contracts
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 28% of their title tokens — “How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round” vs “Will there be more Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 5+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-5
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 4+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-4
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 3+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-3
Cluster 2
Will there be more Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft
Analysis
This prediction represents a 77% likelihood that at least three defensive ends will be selected in the first round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. The high probability reflects strong market confidence in edge rusher demand, driven by typical NFL draft patterns where defensive line talent consistently fills early selections. Primary factors supporting this level include the historical trend of 3+ edges being drafted first-round in most years and the current evaluations of defensive end prospects entering the draft process. The resolution occurs on the official draft date when first-round selections are finalized and player positions are confirmed. The main uncertainty involves how positional evaluations shift during the pre-draft evaluation period and whether surprise trades or unexpected draft strategies alter typical edge rusher selection patterns.
- ›Historical data on first-round edge rusher selections in recent NFL drafts shows typical distribution of 3-5 defensive ends selected early
- ›Current prospect evaluations and mock drafts from major scouting services indicate multiple edge rushers ranked within first-round range
- ›Teams' documented defensive needs heading into the draft season and their stated preferences for edge rusher talent
- ›Trade activity during draft day could alter the number of edges available in first-round selections
- ›The final accuracy of pre-draft positional classifications when determining which players count as 'edges' versus other defensive line positions
What moved the line
- Jun 243+ international-born players drafted↓43pp92→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Big 12↓28pp91→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 244+ international-born players drafted↓6pp74→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 235+ international-born players drafted↑4pp32→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 225+ international-born players drafted↑3pp29→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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