Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 60
Leader sits at 40% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 60
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Above 70
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$450
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 7, 2026
12 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above
Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 60 ?: Above 60
KXNFLXAPP-26SEP07-T60
Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 70 ?: Above 70
KXNFLXAPP-26SEP07-T70
Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 90 ?: Above 90
KXNFLXAPP-26SEP07-T90
Will Netflix App Downloads for August 2026 be above 80 ?: Above 80
KXNFLXAPP-26SEP07-T80
Analysis
This market estimates a 67% probability that Netflix app downloads in August 2026 will exceed 60 million, reflecting trader expectations that the streaming platform will maintain substantial user acquisition despite a mature market. The high probability suggests confidence in Netflix's ability to reach this threshold, though the distribution across higher outcomes (above 70, 80, or 90 million) shows meaningful uncertainty about the magnitude of downloads. Key drivers include competitive dynamics with other streaming services, seasonal viewing patterns in summer, and any new content releases or pricing changes Netflix implements during the month. Resolution depends on Netflix reporting official download figures for August 2026, typically disclosed in quarterly earnings reports or investor communications. The concentration of trading volume in the base 60-million contract versus higher tiers indicates traders see meaningful downside risk, despite the favored outcome.
- ›Netflix's historical August download patterns and year-over-year growth rates in mobile user acquisition
- ›Competitive pressures from Disney+, Amazon Prime, and other platforms affecting net new downloads during the month
- ›Timing and quality of content releases in August 2026, which directly influence new sign-ups and reinstalls
- ›Pricing changes, promotional offers, or crackdowns on account sharing that would increase or suppress new downloads
- ›Availability and reliability of official download metrics from Netflix's August 2026 earnings disclosure
What moved the line
- Aug 21Above 60↑29pp42→71¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Above 60↓26pp79→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 60↓17pp70→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 60↓11pp53→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 60↑7pp72→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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