Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2028
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$177
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1241 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 20” vs “Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 20
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2029?: Before 2029
KXNYCCORPORATETAX-27JAN01-29
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2030?: Before 2030
KXNYCCORPORATETAX-27JAN01-30
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXNYCCORPORATETAX-27JAN01-28
Cluster 2
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?: Before 2027
KXNYCCORPORATETAX-27JAN01
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that there is a roughly 1-in-4 chance New York will raise its corporate tax rate by early 2028. The relatively low probability reflects structural barriers to such legislation: New York State requires gubernatorial approval, and recent administrations have prioritized business-friendly policies and economic competitiveness. However, the probability rises to 31% by 2029 and 36% by 2030, suggesting markets see increasing pressure for tax increases over time. Key drivers include state budget deficits, calls from progressive legislators for revenue increases, and shifting political dynamics. The most significant near-term catalyst would be the 2026 gubernatorial election results and subsequent budgeting cycles, which typically occur in early 2027 and would establish the administration's fiscal priorities for the remainder of the forecast period.
- ›Current New York governor's publicly stated position on corporate taxation and track record on tax policy changes
- ›State budget projections and structural deficits for fiscal years 2027-2028, which typically drive revenue discussions
- ›Composition of New York State legislature after the 2026 midterm elections and any shifts in progressive caucus strength
- ›Historical frequency of significant tax rate changes in New York and typical legislative timeline from proposal to passage
- ›Economic conditions and business climate messaging from major employers and industry groups operating in the state
What moved the line
- Aug 7Before 2029↓8pp32→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Before 2029↑7pp24→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before 2030↓6pp37→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before 2028↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Before 2030↑5pp31→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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