2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that at least one cinematographer will receive a 2027 Oscar nomination, with current pricing at 85% suggesting traders view this as a strong likelihood. The Academy has historically nominated cinematography work across diverse genres and budgets, making shutouts uncommon. The main drivers of this probability are the volume and quality of theatrical releases between now and the nomination deadline, plus the specific creative achievements in cinematography that emerge during this window. The single biggest catalyst will be the Academy's announcement of nominees in early 2027, typically in late January or early February, which will definitively resolve this contract. Market uncertainty reflects variability in which specific cinematographers might be recognized rather than doubt about whether any nominations will occur at all.

• ›The Academy has nominated cinematography in all of the last 20+ consecutive Oscar ceremonies, making a zero-nomination outcome historically anomalous
• ›Market pricing of 85% implies traders assess roughly 15% probability of no cinematography nominations, equivalent to expecting an unprecedented break in nomination patterns
• ›The nomination pool depends on theatrical releases and streaming eligibility decisions made between now and the December 31, 2026 cutoff for 2027 consideration
• ›Contract volume and pricing volatility suggest moderate liquidity but not consensus certainty, with significant disagreement possible as major film productions are finalized
• ›The February 2027 nomination announcement represents the sole resolution date; no intermediate data releases will settle this market before that point

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds