Will Team USA win the Presidents Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 11, 2026
155 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Team USA” vs “Will Team World win the Presidents Cup”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Team USA
Cluster 2
Will Team World win the Presidents Cup
Will Team World win the Presidents Cup?: Team World
KXPRESCUP-26-WORLD
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects market expectations that Team USA will win the Presidents Cup golf tournament. The market is pricing in Team World as the favorite, based on recent competitive balance between the teams and home-course advantages that vary by tournament location. The Presidents Cup typically occurs biennially in odd-numbered years; the upcoming event date and venue will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as host-nation advantages and current player form significantly influence outcomes. Team composition, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head records between teams historically drive pricing shifts in the weeks leading to the event.
- ›Presidents Cup matchups have shown competitive balance in recent years, with neither team establishing consistent dominance—recent tournament results would indicate if one side has gained an advantage
- ›Home-course effects materially impact team sports outcomes; the tournament venue location (whether held in the U.S., International, or neutral ground) directly affects win probability
- ›Current world golf rankings and player availability determine roster strength; injuries, form changes, or ranking shifts among top 50 players would move probability estimates
- ›Historical head-to-head records between Teams USA and World provide baseline reference points; recent matches have ranged from close competitions to decisive margins
- ›Tournament timing and preparation windows affect performance; proximity to major championships and player fatigue levels influence competitive readiness
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.