Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Leader sits at 93% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Sep 18, 2026
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Before Sep 4, 2026
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$51K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Aug 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Aug 21, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26AUG21
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Aug 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Aug 28, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26AUG28
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 18, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26SEP18
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 11, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26SEP11
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 4, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26SEP04
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Sep 25, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26SEP25
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Oct 2, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26OCT02
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Oct 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Before Oct 9, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-75000-26OCT09
Analysis
This market reflects an estimated 62% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $75,000 by October 2, 2026. The contracts show a clear pattern: the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability, suggesting traders believe Bitcoin has a moderate chance to reach this level within two months but face near-term pressure. Current pricing indicates uncertainty about near-term movement, with only 8% probability assigned to a $75,000 close by August 28. The primary drivers are Bitcoin's current price relative to this threshold and broader market sentiment about cryptocurrency volatility over the next six weeks. Resolution depends on sustained upward price momentum, as Bitcoin would need to appreciate substantially from typical August 2026 levels to clear $75,000 by early September or hold above it through early October.
- ›Bitcoin's price relative to $75,000 as of late August 2026 and daily volatility patterns
- ›The probability decline from 62% (Oct 2) to 48% (Sep 25) to 44% (Sep 18) indicates time-decay effects, suggesting uncertainty increases as deadline approaches
- ›Federal Reserve policy signals or macroeconomic data releases between August 20 and October 2 that could influence risk appetite and cryptocurrency demand
- ›Trading volume and bid-ask spreads on major Bitcoin exchanges, which indicate conviction levels among institutional and retail participants
- ›Historical correlation between Bitcoin price movements and broader equity market sentiment, particularly during periods of volatility
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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