Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects an estimated 62% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $75,000 by October 2, 2026. The contracts show a clear pattern: the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability, suggesting traders believe Bitcoin has a moderate chance to reach this level within two months but face near-term pressure. Current pricing indicates uncertainty about near-term movement, with only 8% probability assigned to a $75,000 close by August 28. The primary drivers are Bitcoin's current price relative to this threshold and broader market sentiment about cryptocurrency volatility over the next six weeks. Resolution depends on sustained upward price momentum, as Bitcoin would need to appreciate substantially from typical August 2026 levels to clear $75,000 by early September or hold above it through early October.

• ›Bitcoin's price relative to $75,000 as of late August 2026 and daily volatility patterns
• ›The probability decline from 62% (Oct 2) to 48% (Sep 25) to 44% (Sep 18) indicates time-decay effects, suggesting uncertainty increases as deadline approaches
• ›Federal Reserve policy signals or macroeconomic data releases between August 20 and October 2 that could influence risk appetite and cryptocurrency demand
• ›Trading volume and bid-ask spreads on major Bitcoin exchanges, which indicate conviction levels among institutional and retail participants
• ›Historical correlation between Bitcoin price movements and broader equity market sentiment, particularly during periods of volatility

What moved the line

• Aug 21Before Aug 28, 2026↑45pp24→69¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Before Aug 21, 2026↑39pp7→46¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Before Sep 11, 2026↑36pp36→72¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Before Sep 4, 2026↑29pp30→59¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Before Sep 18, 2026↑21pp52→73¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds