Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029
Leader sits at 17% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2030
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Before 2029
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1266 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 20
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029?: Before 2029
KXCHINAUNBANBTC-26JUL08-29JAN01
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2030?: Before 2030
KXCHINAUNBANBTC-26JUL08-30JAN01
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXCHINAUNBANBTC-26JUL08-28JAN01
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXCHINAUNBANBTC-26JUL08-27JAN01
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 16% probability that China will permit legal public Bitcoin trading through regulated platforms by 2030, with the likelihood decreasing for earlier dates (11% by 2029, 9% by 2028). This reflects China's historical resistance to cryptocurrency—the country banned domestic crypto exchanges in 2017 and has maintained strict capital controls and skepticism toward decentralized assets. The probability hinges on whether geopolitical or economic pressures might shift policy, such as competition with other nations' crypto adoption, blockchain technology breakthroughs gaining legitimacy with regulators, or macroeconomic conditions making alternative assets strategically valuable. The low probability suggests markets view such a reversal as unlikely given no clear signals from Beijing indicating policy reconsideration. Resolution would require an explicit government announcement or formal regulatory framework, not merely private trading or gray-market activity.
- ›China banned domestic crypto exchanges in September 2017 and has not reversed course; policy statements since then have emphasized financial stability risks and capital control concerns rather than openness
- ›Capital account controls remain a core monetary policy tool, and Bitcoin's borderless nature directly conflicts with Beijing's exchange management priorities
- ›No scheduled regulatory review or policy debate on cryptocurrency legalization has been publicly announced for the 2026-2029 timeframe
- ›Bitcoin adoption by competing economies (if accelerated) or technological legitimacy gains in financial infrastructure could theoretically shift cost-benefit analysis for policymakers
- ›The resolution criteria require an explicit government-authorized framework, excluding any de facto tolerance or private market activity that might emerge without formal policy change
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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