Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$280
13 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
81 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Shedeur Sanders be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 2
Will Dillon Gabriel be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 3
Will Deshaun Watson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 4
Will Tua Tagovailoa be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Cluster 5
Will Fernando Mendoza be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1
Cluster 6
Will Geno Smith be starting quarterback for New York J in Week 1
Will Geno Smith be starting quarterback for New York J in Week 1?: Geno Smith
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP14-NYJ-GSMI
Cluster 7
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1?: Kirk Cousins
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-LV-KCOU
Cluster 8
Will Carson Beck be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Will Carson Beck be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1?: Carson Beck
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-ARI-CBEC
Cluster 9
Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Cluster 10
Will Ty Simpson be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Will Ty Simpson be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1?: Ty Simpson
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-ARI-TSIM
Cluster 11
Will Michael Penix Jr. be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Cluster 12
Will Anthony Richardson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 13
Will Kyler Murray be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Will Kyler Murray be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1?: Kyler Murray
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-CLE-KMUR
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 40% chance that Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback when the 2026 NFL season opens in Week 1. The market reflects uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback depth chart heading into summer, with Brissett competing against other roster options or potential acquisitions. The probability would shift based on Arizona's draft decisions, free-agent moves, and any trade activity targeting veteran quarterbacks. Training camp performance and official roster announcements in August-September will be the primary catalysts that resolve this market, as teams typically finalize their opening-day starting lineups by late August. Similar QB starter markets show comparable volatility, with probability ranges typically tightening significantly once the NFL season approaches and teams make final personnel decisions.
- ›Arizona's draft strategy in April-May 2026, particularly whether they select a quarterback early or address other roster needs
- ›Transactions involving other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster or availability of veteran free agents during offseason
- ›Brissett's performance during minicamp and training camp in July-August, which directly influences coaching staff decisions
- ›Official depth chart announcements from Arizona coaching staff in late August before Week 1
- ›Injury status of competing quarterbacks on the roster or incoming acquisitions
What moved the line
- Jun 20Shedeur Sanders↓23pp41→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Fernando Mendoza↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Jacoby Brissett↑10pp61→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Jacoby Brissett↓10pp71→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Michael Penix Jr.↓9pp35→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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