Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$71K
12 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
13 days
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 2
Will Tua Tagovailoa be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Will Tua Tagovailoa be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Tua Tagovailoa
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-ATL-TTAG
Cluster 3
Will Michael Penix Jr. be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Cluster 4
Will Deshaun Watson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 5
Will Jack Strand be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Will Jack Strand be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Jack Strand
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-26SEP15ATL-JSTR
Cluster 6
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1?: Kirk Cousins
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-LV-KCOU
Cluster 7
Will Cooper Rush be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1
Will Cooper Rush be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Cooper Rush
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-26SEP15ATL-CRUS
Cluster 8
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1
Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1?: Malik Willis
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-MIA-MWIL
Cluster 9
Will Anthony Richardson be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1
Cluster 10
Will Aaron Rodgers be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1
Will Aaron Rodgers be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1?: Aaron Rodgers
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-PIT-AROD
Cluster 11
Will Carson Beck be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1
Will Carson Beck be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1?: Carson Beck
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-PIT-CBEC
Cluster 12
Will Will Levis be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1
Will Will Levis be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1?: Will Levis
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-PIT-WLEV
Analysis
This market reflects whether Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback in the opening game of the 2026 NFL season. At 49%, the probability indicates near-even odds between Brissett starting versus an alternative QB taking the role. The main drivers are Arizona's offseason acquisitions and depth chart decisions, along with injury status entering the season. Competition from other roster options and coaching staff preferences for system fit will also influence the outcome. The key resolution point is Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, when the team's starting lineup becomes official. Between now and then, training camp performance, preseason games, and any injury developments will provide clearer signals. The market pricing near 50-50 suggests meaningful uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback decision, with material contingencies that could shift the outcome in either direction based on team performance and roster moves.
- ›Arizona's draft picks and free agency acquisitions at QB or surrounding positions indicate organizational direction
- ›Jacoby Brissett's performance and health status through training camp and preseason games
- ›Competition from other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster and their relative performance metrics
- ›Coaching staff's stated QB priorities and system requirements heading into the 2026 season
- ›Any trades, acquisitions, or injury developments that affect the QB depth chart between August 2026 and Week 1
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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