Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 60% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
8 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Deshaun Watson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1
Cluster 2
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 3
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1
Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1?: Kirk Cousins
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-LV-KCOU
Cluster 4
Will Fernando Mendoza be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1
Cluster 5
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 6
Will Aaron Rodgers be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1
Cluster 7
Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Cluster 8
Will Ty Simpson be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1
Will Ty Simpson be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1?: Ty Simpson
KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-ARI-TSIM
Analysis
This market reflects whether Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback in the opening game of the 2026 NFL season. At 49%, the probability indicates near-even odds between Brissett starting versus an alternative QB taking the role. The main drivers are Arizona's offseason acquisitions and depth chart decisions, along with injury status entering the season. Competition from other roster options and coaching staff preferences for system fit will also influence the outcome. The key resolution point is Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, when the team's starting lineup becomes official. Between now and then, training camp performance, preseason games, and any injury developments will provide clearer signals. The market pricing near 50-50 suggests meaningful uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback decision, with material contingencies that could shift the outcome in either direction based on team performance and roster moves.
- ›Arizona's draft picks and free agency acquisitions at QB or surrounding positions indicate organizational direction
- ›Jacoby Brissett's performance and health status through training camp and preseason games
- ›Competition from other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster and their relative performance metrics
- ›Coaching staff's stated QB priorities and system requirements heading into the 2026 season
- ›Any trades, acquisitions, or injury developments that affect the QB depth chart between August 2026 and Week 1
What moved the line
- Aug 24Deshaun Watson↑31pp49→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Deshaun Watson↓22pp71→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Deshaun Watson↑17pp80→97¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Deshaun Watson↓14pp85→71¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Deshaun Watson↑6pp79→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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