Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 16, 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
On Nov 16, 2026
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
On Mar 15, 2027
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
Nov 23, 2027
453 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 16, 2026?: On Nov 16, 2026
KXTHCLEGALSALE3MG-FED-26NOV16
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Mar 15, 2027?: On Mar 15, 2027
KXTHCLEGALSALE3MG-FED-27MAR15
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Dec 14, 2026?: On Dec 14, 2026
KXTHCLEGALSALE3MG-FED-26DEC14
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 22, 2027?: On Nov 22, 2027
KXTHCLEGALSALE3MG-FED-27NOV22
Analysis
This contract measures whether 3 mg THC beverages will be legal to sell at the federal level by November 16, 2026—roughly 2.5 months away. Currently priced at 38%, it reflects substantial uncertainty about near-term regulatory changes. The probability is driven by the lack of explicit federal legalization of THC beverages under the Farm Bill framework and the complexity of FDA approval processes. The DEA's interpretation of hemp-derived THC products and any Congressional action before the November deadline represent the main catalysts. Later-dated contracts (Dec 2026 onward) trade lower, suggesting traders see legalization as unlikely in 2026 but somewhat more plausible if delayed further, potentially reflecting expectations that regulatory clarity may emerge in 2027 under new administrations or legislative priorities.
- ›No current federal statute explicitly authorizes retail sales of THC beverages; approval would require either DEA reclassification, FDA food additive clearance, or new legislation
- ›The Farm Bill's hemp legalization covers CBD and certain cannabinoids but does not clearly permit psychoactive THC in beverages at any dose
- ›November 16, 2026 is 82 days away, leaving minimal time for formal regulatory processes or Congressional action absent emergency procedures
- ›Later-dated contracts trade at lower probabilities (23-31%), suggesting market participants view 2026 as structurally unlikely for legalization
- ›Recent state-level legalization and commercial sales of low-dose THC beverages have not triggered federal enforcement or formal approval frameworks
What moved the line
- Aug 26On Nov 16, 2026↑23pp17→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27On Nov 16, 2026↑23pp40→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27On Dec 14, 2026↑16pp29→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27On Mar 15, 2027↑15pp34→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26On Mar 15, 2027↑12pp22→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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