How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Olivia Rodrigo hold for the week of Jun 27, 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 0 songs
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Exactly 1 song
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$617
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
13 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Future hold for the week of Jul 25, 2026
How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Future hold for the week of Jul 25, 2026?: Exactly 0 songs
KXTOP10BBSPOTS-26JUL25-FUT-0
How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Future hold for the week of Jul 25, 2026?: Exactly 1 song
KXTOP10BBSPOTS-26JUL25-FUT-1
How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Future hold for the week of Jul 25, 2026?: Exactly 2 songs
KXTOP10BBSPOTS-26JUL25-FUT-2
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Olivia Rodrigo will hold exactly one spot on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 for the week of June 27, 2026, with traders currently pricing this outcome at 87% probability. The high confidence reflects her sustained chart performance and strong streaming numbers, though the exact outcome depends on new release activity from both Rodrigo and competing artists in late June. The critical catalyst is the Billboard chart dated June 27, 2026, which will definitively show her top-10 positioning. Recent streaming trends, any surprise album announcements or singles drops, and competitive releases from other major artists in the final week of June could shift expectations significantly. The current dominance of the "exactly 1 song" contract suggests traders view scenarios of zero, two, three or more simultaneous top-10 entries as substantially less likely.
- ›Rodrigo's current streaming velocity and existing top-10 presence as of early June 2026 will establish baseline momentum into late June
- ›New single releases or album announcements from Rodrigo or major competitors between now and June 27 would directly alter chart positioning
- ›The definition of "exactly 1 song" excludes both zero top-10 entries and multiple simultaneous top-10 placements, making this outcome sensitive to concentrated vs. dispersed chart performance
- ›Historical chart behavior showing how long individual songs typically sustain top-10 status influences expected decay or growth
- ›Any major industry events, award shows, or viral moments affecting chart-driving metrics (streaming, radio spins, downloads) in late June
What moved the line
- Jul 10Exactly 0 songs↑36pp22→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Exactly 2 songs↓13pp25→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Exactly 1 song↓8pp31→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Exactly 0 songs↑5pp19→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Exactly 0 songs↑4pp58→62¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 0d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 0d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 0d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.