Will Lorde perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Avett Brothers perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 2
Will deadmau5 perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will deadmau5 perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: deadmau5
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-DEA
Cluster 3
Will Dispatch perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Dispatch perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Dispatch
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-DIS
Cluster 4
Will Mt. Joy perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Mt. Joy perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Mt. Joy
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-MTJ
Cluster 5
Will Big Head Todd and the Monsters perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 6
Will Nathaniel Rateliff perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 7
Will Gregory Alan Isakov perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 8
Will The String Cheese Incident perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 9
Will Zeds Dead perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Zeds Dead perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Zeds Dead
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-ZED
Cluster 10
Will Billy Strings perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Billy Strings perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Billy Strings
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-BIL
Cluster 11
Will Blues Traveler perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 12
Will Chris Stapleton perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Cluster 13
Will Dom Dolla perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Dom Dolla perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Dom Dolla
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-DOM
Cluster 14
Will Fred again.. perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Fred again.. perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Fred again..
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-FRE
Cluster 15
Will Goose perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Goose perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Goose
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-GOO
Cluster 16
Will GRiZ perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will GRiZ perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: GRiZ
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-GRI
Cluster 17
Will Hozier perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Hozier perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Hozier
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-HOZ
Cluster 18
Will ILLENIUM perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will ILLENIUM perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: ILLENIUM
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-ILL
Cluster 19
Will Joe Bonamassa perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will Joe Bonamassa perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: Joe Bonamassa
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-JOE
Cluster 20
Will John Summit perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027
Will John Summit perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre in 2027?: John Summit
KXVENUEPERFORM-REDROCKS28JAN01-JOH
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Lorde will perform at Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre during 2027. The 10% assessment reflects Lorde's touring history and current market signals, with comparable artists showing similarly low probabilities despite Red Rocks' status as a major venue. The main drivers of this low probability are the limited number of confirmed 2027 tour dates in the market thus far and Lorde's infrequent touring schedule historically. The biggest catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be official tour announcements from Lorde or her representatives, typically released several months before scheduled performances. Red Rocks' capacity and prestige make it a destination venue, but artists must specifically select it during their touring plans. Real-time monitoring of artist announcement channels, tour schedules, and venue booking patterns would provide concrete updates as 2027 approaches.
- ›Lorde's historical touring frequency and venue selection patterns in previous album cycles
- ›Whether Lorde announces any new album or tour plans in late 2026 or early 2027
- ›Red Rocks' typical booking lead time and historical attractiveness to artists in Lorde's genre
- ›Comparison to baseline probabilities for comparable artists at the same venue during the same timeframe
- ›Official confirmation of Red Rocks' 2027 performance calendar as dates are locked in
What moved the line
- Aug 22The String Cheese Incident↑55pp5→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22GRiZ↑49pp4→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Zeds Dead↑48pp2→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Nathaniel Rateliff↑43pp13→56¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22The Avett Brothers↑39pp7→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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