Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000
Leader sits at 94% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $200,000
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above $225,000
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$160
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
216 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $325,000?: Above $325,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T325000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?: Above $250,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T250000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?: Above $200,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T200000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $350,000?: Above $350,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T350000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?: Above $300,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T300000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?: Above $275,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T275000
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?: Above $225,000
KXWALLSTBONUS-27MAR31-T225000
Analysis
The market is pricing a 63% chance that average bonuses for Wall Street employees in 2026 will exceed $250,000. This metric reflects expectations about financial-sector profitability, deal activity, and compensation practices in a single year. The probability is elevated above 50% because 2026 appears positioned for moderate-to-strong conditions in banking and capital markets based on current economic forecasts. The main drivers are M&A transaction volume, trading revenue, and investment banking fees—all sensitive to interest rates, client risk appetite, and market volatility. Downside risks include recession, tighter credit conditions, or regulatory constraints on compensation. The primary uncertainty resolver will be actual year-end bonus data releases from major investment banks, typically reported in January-March 2027, which will show whether average total compensation met this threshold.
- ›M&A deal count and transaction sizes in 2026 relative to 2025 actuals—higher deal flow directly supports higher bonus pools
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate environment and credit market conditions through Q4 2026—looser conditions typically expand trading and capital-raising revenues
- ›Wall Street headcount in 2026 versus prior years—bonus pool divided by fewer employees raises per-capita bonus figures
- ›Actual bonus disclosure data from major investment banks released in early 2027—provides definitive measurement against the $250,000 threshold
- ›Regulatory changes or compensation limits imposed in 2026 that could constrain discretionary bonus payouts
What moved the line
- Aug 23Above $250,000↑24pp44→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above $250,000↓20pp64→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above $225,000↑15pp79→94¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above $275,000↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above $275,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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