South Africa vs Canada
Leader sits at 59% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
To Advance: France advances
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
To Advance: Spain advances
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$1.6M
liquid
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
28 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
France vs Spain: To Advance
Analysis
This 50% probability indicates that prediction markets view South Africa and Canada as evenly matched for advancing in their matchup. The even split likely reflects uncertainty around team form, head-to-head records, and venue conditions. Key factors driving the probability include each team's recent performance metrics, injury status, and historical outcomes in similar competitive contexts. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual match result, which will immediately determine the outcome. Market participants are essentially pricing in a genuine competitive balance between the two teams based on available performance data.
- ›Head-to-head historical win rates and goal differential between South Africa and Canada in recent matchups
- ›Current squad injury status and player availability for both teams entering the match
- ›Venue location and home-field advantage dynamics affecting performance levels
- ›Recent form metrics including points accumulated and goals scored/conceded in preceding fixtures
- ›Market volume concentration across the two outcome contracts, indicating confidence or uncertainty among traders
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (59% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.