Will any country not ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the semifinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
32 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the winner of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup be any country not ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance
Cluster 2
Will any country not ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the semifinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will any country not ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the semifinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Any country ranked outside the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the semifinals
KXWCFIFATOP10-26SF-Y
Cluster 3
Will every country ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will every country ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage
KXWCFIFATOP10-26KO-Y
Analysis
This market assesses whether a team ranked outside the top 10 in FIFA's current rankings will reach the 2026 World Cup semifinals. A 45% probability suggests roughly even odds for an underdog to advance that far in the tournament. The current level reflects historical precedent—underdog nations occasionally perform well in major tournaments, though top-ranked teams statistically dominate late stages. The probability would shift higher if lower-ranked teams perform strongly in qualifying or early tournament play, and lower if top-10 teams show dominant form. The 2026 World Cup itself, scheduled for June-July, will directly resolve this through tournament results.
- ›Historical frequency: In the last three World Cups (2014-2022), at least one non-top-10 team reached the semifinals each time, providing evidence both for and against this outcome occurring again
- ›Current FIFA rankings: As of June 2026, the actual composition of the top 10 determines which teams are 'excluded' and which lower-ranked nations could qualify as underdog semifinalists
- ›Group stage performance: Teams' results in the opening round will indicate whether non-top-10 nations are on track to advance from their groups, providing early signal before knockout stages begin
- ›Qualifying results: How nations not in the top 10 performed during their confederation qualifiers indicates competitive strength relative to current rankings
- ›Tournament draw: The specific groupings and bracket structure in June 2026 will affect matchup difficulty and advancement probability for lower-ranked teams
What moved the line
- Jun 20Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage↑12pp68→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage↓9pp80→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage↑8pp71→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage↑6pp79→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Every country ranked top 10 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking to reach the knockout stage↑5pp80→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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