Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19K
12 contracts
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Julian Alvarez score” vs “Will Lionel Messi score”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Julian Alvarez score
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26JALVAR19-2
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26JALVAR19-3
Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 6+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26JALVAR19-6
Will Julian Alvarez score 5+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26JALVAR19-5
Cluster 2
Will Lionel Messi score
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 11+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LMESSI10-11
Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LMESSI10-10
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 9+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LMESSI10-9
Cluster 3
Will Lamine Yamal score
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LYAMAL10-3
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LYAMAL10-2
Will Lamine Yamal score 4+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ goals
KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LYAMAL10-4
Cluster 4
Will Kylian Mbappe score
Analysis
This contract asks whether Cristiano Ronaldo will score at least 3 goals across all matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. At 35% probability, the market reflects skepticism about his performance, despite his proven goalscoring record. The primary factors are his age (he will be 41 during the tournament) and playing time allocation by Portugal's coaching staff. Ronaldo's goal-scoring rate depends heavily on whether he remains a starter or substitute, his physical durability over a compressed tournament schedule, and the quality of service from teammates. The tournament begins in June 2026, which will be the definitive test. Markets also price in that achieving 3+ goals requires both selection and consistent involvement, not merely one standout performance.
- ›Ronaldo's age and fitness level at 41 years old during the tournament, historically a critical factor for outfield player performance
- ›Portugal's attacking depth and whether Ronaldo receives regular starting minutes or primarily substitute appearances
- ›Number of matches Portugal plays (depending on group stage performance and knockout advancement), directly affecting scoring opportunities
- ›His recent goal-scoring efficiency in major tournament appearances relative to minutes played
- ›Tournament schedule and match spacing, affecting recovery and cumulative physical toll on an aging player
What moved the line
- Jul 89+ goals↑15pp53→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 59+ goals↑15pp51→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 72+ goals↓14pp60→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 62+ goals↑13pp47→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 710+ goals↑12pp28→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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