Will Senegal finish first in World Cup Group I
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$356K
15 contracts
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Netherlands finish first in World Cup Group F
Will Netherlands finish first in World Cup Group F?: Netherlands
KXWCGROUPWIN-26F-NED
Cluster 2
Will Japan finish first in World Cup Group F
Will Japan finish first in World Cup Group F?: Japan
KXWCGROUPWIN-26F-JPN
Cluster 3
Will Colombia finish first in World Cup Group K
Will Colombia finish first in World Cup Group K?: Colombia
KXWCGROUPWIN-26K-COL
Cluster 4
Will Portugal finish first in World Cup Group K
Will Portugal finish first in World Cup Group K?: Portugal
KXWCGROUPWIN-26K-POR
Cluster 5
Will Belgium finish first in World Cup Group G
Will Belgium finish first in World Cup Group G?: Belgium
KXWCGROUPWIN-26G-BEL
Cluster 6
Will Cape Verde finish first in World Cup Group H
Will Cape Verde finish first in World Cup Group H?: Cape Verde
KXWCGROUPWIN-26H-CPV
Cluster 7
Will Ghana finish first in World Cup Group L
Will Ghana finish first in World Cup Group L?: Ghana
KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-GHA
Cluster 8
Will England finish first in World Cup Group L
Will England finish first in World Cup Group L?: England
KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-ENG
Cluster 9
Will France finish first in World Cup Group I
Will France finish first in World Cup Group I?: France
KXWCGROUPWIN-26I-FRA
Cluster 10
Will Egypt finish first in World Cup Group G
Will Egypt finish first in World Cup Group G?: Egypt
KXWCGROUPWIN-26G-EGY
Cluster 11
Will Croatia finish first in World Cup Group L
Will Croatia finish first in World Cup Group L?: Croatia
KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-CRO
Cluster 12
Will Spain finish first in World Cup Group H
Will Spain finish first in World Cup Group H?: Spain
KXWCGROUPWIN-26H-ESP
Cluster 13
Will IR Iran finish first in World Cup Group G
Will IR Iran finish first in World Cup Group G?: IR Iran
KXWCGROUPWIN-26G-IRI
Cluster 14
Will Norway finish first in World Cup Group I
Will Norway finish first in World Cup Group I?: Norway
KXWCGROUPWIN-26I-NOR
Cluster 15
Will Uruguay finish first in World Cup Group H
Will Uruguay finish first in World Cup Group H?: Uruguay
KXWCGROUPWIN-26H-URU
Analysis
This probability reflects current market expectations that Senegal will top World Cup Group I ahead of other competitors. The 28% assessment suggests meaningful but not favored odds, likely reflecting Senegal's regional strength in African football while accounting for potential group opponents' capabilities. Key drivers of this probability are Senegal's recent tournament performance, the specific composition of Group I opponents, and how analysts weigh head-to-head matchups and home-field considerations. The probability will shift based on final group assignments and any roster changes as teams announce their squads closer to tournament start. The definitive resolution occurs when the group stage concludes and final standings are determined.
- ›Senegal's FIFA ranking relative to other potential Group I competitors at time of group draw
- ›Historical head-to-head records between Senegal and confirmed Group I opponents in recent competitions
- ›Injury status and squad depth of key Senegal players during the tournament window
- ›Whether Group I includes traditionally strong football nations or lower-ranked teams based on seeding
- ›Home advantage effects if matches are played in specific regional locations
What moved the line
- Jun 20Netherlands↑37pp43→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Belgium↓19pp62→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Egypt↑15pp35→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Japan↓14pp26→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Belgium↓14pp38→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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