Will there be at least 1 hattrick recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3+ hattricks
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
4+ hattricks
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
32 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be at least
Will there be at least 5 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ hattricks
KXWCHATTRICK-26-5
Will there be at least 4 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ hattricks
KXWCHATTRICK-26-4
Will there be at least 3 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ hattricks
KXWCHATTRICK-26-3
Analysis
The market is pricing at 96% the likelihood that at least two players will each score three goals in a single match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects the contract structure where 2+ hattricks is the leading outcome, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds (72% for 3+, 67% for 4+, 32% for 5+). The elevated probability depends on squad depth, offensive tactics, and opponent quality varying across tournament matches. The tournament runs from mid-June through mid-July 2026, with group stages and knockout rounds determining matchup quality and player opportunity. Resolution occurs through the tournament's completion, making team composition, injuries to star forwards, and defensive strategy key variables that could shift the probability before and during play.
- ›Historical hattrick frequency in World Cup tournaments (2014: 2 total, 2018: 1 total, 2022: 1 total) suggests 2+ is statistically rare but plausible over 64 matches
- ›Participation of high-volume shooters and dominant attacking teams in 2026 will determine whether conditions exist for multiple hattricks across different matches
- ›Defensive quality and goalkeeper performance in group stages and knockout rounds directly affects scoring thresholds individual players can reach
- ›Early tournament results and group-stage blowouts (common sources of hattricks) will refine expectations before knockout stage begins
- ›Squad strength and forward depth across participating nations determines whether multiple players have opportunities to reach three-goal benchmarks in single matches
What moved the line
- Jun 194+ hattricks↑28pp32→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 223+ hattricks↓27pp90→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 203+ hattricks↑20pp69→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 204+ hattricks↓13pp60→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 195+ hattricks↑11pp15→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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