Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kylian Mbappé
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Lionel Messi
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
39 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup?: Tie
KXWCMESSIMBAPPE-26LMESSI10KMBAPP10-TIE
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup?: Kylian Mbappé
KXWCMESSIMBAPPE-26LMESSI10KMBAPP10-KMBAPP10
Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup?: Lionel Messi
KXWCMESSIMBAPPE-26LMESSI10KMBAPP10-LMESSI10
Analysis
This market measures whether Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé will score more goals at the next FIFA World Cup. Messi currently has a 40% probability of outscoring Mbappé, with Mbappé close behind at 39% and a tie at 15%. The narrow margin reflects uncertainty about their relative performance, influenced by factors such as their current club form, injury history, role within their national team's system, and historical World Cup performance. The 2026 World Cup in the United States, scheduled for June-July 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome. Traders are pricing in that both players remain elite scorers but face unpredictable variables including tournament-specific conditions, team tactics, and the inherent variance in goal-scoring across compressed group and knockout stages.
- ›Mbappé's current age (27 in 2026) and peak performance window versus Messi's age (39) and stamina demands over a full tournament
- ›Historical World Cup goal-scoring rates: Messi has 13 career World Cup goals; Mbappé has 8, though Mbappé's rate per tournament has accelerated
- ›National team tactics and squad depth in attacking roles—whether each player's federation prioritizes them as primary finisher or distributes scoring responsibility
- ›Injury or fitness concerns in the 6 months prior to the tournament that could affect either player's availability or effectiveness
- ›Group stage draw difficulty and knockout progression, which determines total minutes played and scoring opportunities available to each player
What moved the line
- Jun 18Kylian Mbappé↑21pp23→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Lionel Messi↑15pp23→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Lionel Messi↓11pp48→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Lionel Messi↑8pp40→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Lionel Messi↑8pp39→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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