Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 20000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen
Leader sits at 97% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 20.0M
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 22.0M
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$984
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 24000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 24.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-24.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 36000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 36.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-36.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 22000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 22.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-22.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 26000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 26.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-26.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 28000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 28.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-28.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 34000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 34.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-34.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 40000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 40.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-40.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 30000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 30.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-30.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 32000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 32.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-32.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 38000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 38.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-38.0M
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final have above 20000000 Total Viewers (P2+) on Nielsen?: Above 20.0M
KXWCVIEWERSHIP-27JAN01-20.0M
Analysis
This measures whether the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final will reach at least 20 million viewers in the US among people 2+. The contract is currently priced at 50%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the match crosses this threshold. Historical World Cup Finals in the US have varied significantly—the 2022 final drew roughly 17.5 million viewers, while the 1994 tournament generated substantially higher numbers as a cultural event. Viewership hinges on two main factors: which teams reach the final (matchups involving the US or Mexico typically boost US ratings) and competing entertainment options on the scheduled date. The outcome will be definitively resolved through Nielsen ratings data released by broadcasting networks or Nielsen directly following the July 13, 2026 final match.
- ›Historical US World Cup Final viewership ranges from 15-25 million, with 2022 drawing 17.5 million—establishing that 20 million is an attainable but not guaranteed threshold
- ›Team composition of the finalists materially affects US viewership; US or Mexico participation typically increases ratings by 2-5 million viewers relative to other matchups
- ›Nielsen's P2+ demographic measurement methodology and reporting lag means final verification occurs days after the match, providing the definitive settlement data
- ›Competing sports or entertainment events scheduled for July 13, 2026 could cannibalize viewers; early scheduling conflicts remain unknown
- ›Cable cord-cutting and streaming distribution patterns between now and 2026 may reduce traditional Nielsen-measured viewership relative to 2022 baseline
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 22.0M↑30pp55→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 30.0M↑29pp39→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 22.0M↓28pp83→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 24.0M↓27pp83→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 32.0M↑25pp30→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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