Will Caitlin Clark win MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
571 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caitlin Clark win MVP
Will Caitlin Clark win MVP?: Caitlin Clark
KXWNBAMVP-26-CCLA
Cluster 2
Will Breanna Stewart win MVP
Will Breanna Stewart win MVP?: Breanna Stewart
KXWNBAMVP-26-BSTE
Cluster 3
Will Paige Bueckers win MVP
Will Paige Bueckers win MVP?: Paige Bueckers
KXWNBAMVP-26-PBUE
Cluster 4
Will Alyssa Thomas win MVP
Will Alyssa Thomas win MVP?: Alyssa Thomas
KXWNBAMVP-26-ATHO
Cluster 5
Will Gabby Williams win MVP
Will Gabby Williams win MVP?: Gabby Williams
KXWNBAMVP-26-GWIL
Cluster 6
Will Napheesa Collier win MVP
Will Napheesa Collier win MVP?: Napheesa Collier
KXWNBAMVP-26-NCOL
Cluster 7
Will A'ja Wilson win MVP
Will A'ja Wilson win MVP?: A'ja Wilson
KXWNBAMVP-26-AWIL
Cluster 8
Will Kelsey Plum win MVP
Will Kelsey Plum win MVP?: Kelsey Plum
KXWNBAMVP-26-KPLU
Cluster 9
Will Sabrina Ionescu win MVP
Will Sabrina Ionescu win MVP?: Sabrina Ionescu
KXWNBAMVP-26-SION
Cluster 10
Will Tie/Co-Winners win MVP
Will Tie/Co-Winners win MVP?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXWNBAMVP-26-TIE
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Caitlin Clark will win the NBA Finals MVP award this season. Clark's chances depend heavily on her individual performance metrics and her team's playoff success, as Finals MVP typically goes to a star player on the championship team. The primary driver of this probability is the Philadelphia 76ers' current playoff position and whether they reach the Finals, since the contract data suggests strong market interest in Eastern Conference contenders. The resolution will occur following the NBA Finals, which typically concludes in mid-June, when the award is officially announced. Movement in this probability will primarily track playoff results and individual statistical performances as teams progress toward the championship series.
- ›Philadelphia's playoff seeding and remaining schedule determines whether Clark's team reaches the Finals
- ›Clark's scoring, assist, and efficiency statistics relative to other star players on Finals-bound teams
- ›Market pricing on competing Finals MVP candidates (Wembanyama at 18¢ shows relative confidence in other players)
- ›Whether Clark maintains starter role and significant minutes throughout playoff progression
- ›Official Finals MVP voting criteria and historical patterns of how voters weight individual vs. team success
What moved the line
- May 7A'ja Wilson↑8pp25→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Paige Bueckers↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Alyssa Thomas↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.