Will Caitlin Clark win MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$40K
3 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
435 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caitlin Clark win MVP
Will Caitlin Clark win MVP?: Caitlin Clark
KXWNBAMVP-26-CCLA
Cluster 2
Will A'ja Wilson win MVP
Will A'ja Wilson win MVP?: A'ja Wilson
KXWNBAMVP-26-AWIL
Cluster 3
Will Kelsey Mitchell win MVP
Will Kelsey Mitchell win MVP?: Kelsey Mitchell
KXWNBAMVP-26-KMIT
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Caitlin Clark has roughly even odds of winning the WNBA MVP award. The current 48% estimate suggests significant uncertainty around whether she will outperform competitors over the remainder of the season. Key factors influencing this level include Clark's scoring and assist statistics relative to other top performers, particularly A'ja Wilson who is trading at 92%, and team performance metrics such as playoff positioning and win totals. The MVP award ultimately depends on voter preference among eligible candidates, which can weigh regular-season statistics differently. The most significant catalyst for resolution will be the end of the regular season and the official MVP voting announcement, typically occurring in the fall. Between now and then, performance trajectories, injury status, and team standings will provide clearer signals about voter sentiment.
- ›A'ja Wilson is currently priced at 92¢, indicating market belief she is the frontrunner; Caitlin Clark's 48¢ reflects meaningful probability but substantial distance between the two candidates
- ›MVP voting is conducted by media and fan ballots rather than algorithmic metrics, introducing subjective judgment that can diverge from traditional statistical leaders
- ›Clark's assist and scoring averages, plus her team's playoff positioning and overall record, are measurable inputs that determine competitive MVP candidacy
- ›Recent regular-season performance trends and any injuries to top candidates will shift probabilities as the season concludes and voters gain more complete information
- ›The official MVP announcement date marks the hard resolution point; market probability will converge toward 0% or 100% based on the actual voting outcome
What moved the line
- Sep 19Kelsey Mitchell↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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