Will Iga Swiatek qualify for the WTA Singles Finals Riyadh
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
76 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Marta Kostyuk qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Marta Kostyuk qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Marta Kostyuk
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-KOS
Cluster 2
Will Mirra Andreeva qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Mirra Andreeva qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Mirra Andreeva
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-AND
Cluster 3
Will Coco Gauff qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Coco Gauff qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Coco Gauff
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-GAU
Cluster 4
Will Iva Jovic qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Iva Jovic qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Iva Jovic
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-JOV
Cluster 5
Will Karolina Muchova qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Karolina Muchova qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Karolina Muchova
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-MUC
Cluster 6
Will Emma Navarro qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Emma Navarro qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Emma Navarro
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-NAV
Cluster 7
Will Naomi Osaka qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Naomi Osaka qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Naomi Osaka
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-OSA
Cluster 8
Will Jessica Pegula qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Jessica Pegula qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Jessica Pegula
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-PEG
Cluster 9
Will Elena Rybakina qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Elena Rybakina qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Elena Rybakina
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-RYB
Cluster 10
Will Aryna Sabalenka qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Aryna Sabalenka qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Aryna Sabalenka
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-SAB
Cluster 11
Will Elina Svitolina qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Elina Svitolina qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Elina Svitolina
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-SVI
Cluster 12
Will Iga Swiatek qualify for the WTA Singles Finals
Will Iga Swiatek qualify for the WTA Singles Finals?: Iga Swiatek
KXWTAFINALSQUAL-26RIY-SWI
Analysis
This represents the estimated chance that Iga Swiatek will finish among the top 8 players in the WTA rankings by the end of 2026 and qualify for the year-end singles finals in Riyadh. The 12% probability reflects significant skepticism about her qualification prospects, likely driven by her recent performance trajectory and consistency relative to top-ranked competitors like Sabalenka and Rybakina. Swiatek's ability to secure enough ranking points across remaining 2026 tournaments will determine qualification. The primary catalyst will be her performance at major events through the second half of the year, with the US Open in late August and subsequent tournaments critically important for accumulating points before the December rankings cutoff.
- ›Swiatek's current ranking position and distance from the top 8 as of June 2026
- ›Her historical injury frequency and playing consistency across full seasons
- ›Point accumulation rate needed relative to competitors also competing for the 8 spots
- ›Performance record specifically at the major events and high-ranking tournaments remaining in 2026
- ›The December 2026 WTA year-end ranking cutoff date when finals qualification is finalized
What moved the line
- Aug 23Karolina Muchova↓21pp25→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Elena Rybakina↓12pp95→83¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Iga Swiatek↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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