Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 60bps

30-day trend

Analysis

This question tracks whether the gap between longer-term and shorter-term Treasury yields will exceed 60 basis points on the last trading day of 2026. At 72% probability, markets estimate this is likely to occur. The yield curve's steepness depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics through year-end. If markets price in rate cuts or economic weakness, the 10-2 spread typically widens; if growth concerns ease or inflation remains sticky, the curve may flatten. The resolution depends entirely on Treasury pricing on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalysts—the spread will be what it will be on that specific date. Current market pricing reflects expectations that normal yield-curve relationships will prevail rather than remaining inverted or severely flattened.

• ›Current 10-2 spread is approximately -8 to 0 basis points; it must move steeper by 60+ bps in 5.5 months, a significant move from near-flat or inverted levels
• ›Fed policy trajectory through 2026: expectations of rate cuts or unchanged rates would support curve steepening, while further tightening would compress the spread
• ›Inflation data and growth indicators released before December 31 will drive whether market participants expect economic slowdown (steepens curve) or sustained strength (flattens curve)
• ›Historical 10-2 spreads exceed 60 bps during normal economic conditions but remain compressed during recessions or tightening cycles; current environment suggests recession-like inversion
• ›December 31, 2026 is the sole resolution date with no intermediate measurement; all uncertainty collapses on that specific Treasury closing print

What moved the line

• Jul 9Above -20bps↑22pp71→93¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Above -30bps↑15pp79→94¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Above 60bps↓11pp19→8¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Above 70bps↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds