Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recess
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recess
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that exactly two Cabinet nominees will be confirmed by the Senate between now and the August 2026 recess. Market pricing suggests this is the most probable outcome at 48%, with exactly three confirmations at 26% and fewer confirmations at 24% combined. The probability reflects expectations about Senate confirmation pace, nominee withdrawals, and legislative priorities during the summer session. Factors driving this estimate include the current backlog of pending nominees, Senate floor time allocated to confirmations, and historical confirmation velocity. The outcome will be determined definitively once the Senate enters its August recess, with resolution depending on official Senate records of confirmed Cabinet-level positions. Market uncertainty remains meaningful, indicated by meaningful probability distributed across all outcomes.
- ›Current Senate schedule and floor time allocation for Cabinet confirmations versus other legislative priorities between July and early August 2026
- ›Number of pending Cabinet nominees with scheduled hearings or floor votes and their likelihood of advancement without withdrawal or delay
- ›Historical confirmation velocity for Cabinet nominees during summer months when fewer legislative days typically occur before recesses
- ›Whether any major political events, scandals, or procedural delays significantly alter the confirmation timeline between issuance and August recess
- ›Definition clarity on what constitutes a 'Cabinet nominee' and whether provisional or partial confirmations affect the final count
What moved the line
- Aug 33↑15pp2→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 53↓10pp21→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 63↓6pp11→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 43↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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