Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
8 contracts
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
28 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 2
Will Scott Bessent announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 3
Will Nancy Mace announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 4
Will Darline Graham Nordone announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 5
Will Pamela Evette announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 6
Will Russell Fry announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 7
Will Henry McMaster announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Cluster 8
Will Trey Gowdy announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that U.S. Representative Ralph Norman will announce a candidacy for South Carolina's 2026 Senate seat. The 38% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about his intentions, positioned between Nancy Mace (63%) and lower-probability alternatives. Norman's announcement decision will likely be influenced by his current House standing, national political dynamics, and whether he perceives a viable path to victory against the incumbent. The key catalyst will be Norman's own announcement or public statements about his Senate intentions in the coming months, as deadlines for candidate filing typically fall in mid-to-late 2026. Market prices suggest traders view him as a secondary contender compared to Mace, though still a material possibility given his House platform and South Carolina Republican base.
- ›Norman has not yet publicly committed to or ruled out a Senate run as of mid-July 2026
- ›Nancy Mace's higher market probability (63%) indicates traders view her as the frontrunner alternative, suggesting Norman faces meaningful intra-party competition
- ›The South Carolina Class 2 seat filing deadline will mechanically force clarity on candidate intentions before election cycles fully solidify
- ›High trading volume on Norman's contract ($3,689 in 24h volume) indicates active disagreement among market participants on his likelihood
- ›Comparison to Bessent (3%), Nordone (11%), and Evette (22%) shows Norman positioned as a serious but not dominant prospect relative to other potential candidates
What moved the line
- Jul 14Ralph Norman↑23pp61→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Russell Fry↑21pp67→88¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Scott Bessent↓11pp15→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 14Darline Graham Nordone↓8pp19→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 2d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 2d
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 2d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 2d
- Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Coloradolast 97% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Trump's 2028 Run and Midterm Control Priced In
J.D. Vance is the 40¢ frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination, while Democrats are slight underdogs to hold the Senate in 2026 at 44¢. The midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of political power.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.