Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Aug 9, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Before Aug 10, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug
Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026?: Before Aug 9, 2026
KXSENATEADJOURN-27-26AUG09
Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 10, 2026?: Before Aug 10, 2026
KXSENATEADJOURN-27-26AUG10
Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 11, 2026?: Before Aug 11, 2026
KXSENATEADJOURN-27-26AUG11
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that the U.S. Senate will formally adjourn from substantive legislative work for its August 2026 recess before August 10, 2026. At 86%, the market reflects a strong expectation that the recess begins within the next few days. The Senate typically concludes floor business before its scheduled recess periods, and the timing of adjournment depends on the volume of pending legislation, procedural motions, and partisan dynamics that may delay votes. The key driver is whether leadership can clear remaining legislative items by the target date or whether unexpected procedural matters force an extension. Resolution occurs when the Senate formally announces adjournment from substantive business, which is typically reported in real-time through official Senate records and floor announcements.
- ›Senate leadership schedule and stated intention to adjourn before August 9-10 based on public statements
- ›Number and complexity of pending votes or legislative items still requiring floor time as of August 7
- ›Historical pattern of Senate recess timing in August relative to the formal congressional calendar
- ›Whether any unexpected procedural delays, amendments, or floor disputes emerge in the final days
- ›Official Senate adjournment announcement reported through Senate.gov or floor records, which constitutes the resolution trigger
What moved the line
- Aug 8Before Aug 10, 2026↑20pp75→95¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Aug 11, 2026↓18pp84→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Before Aug 11, 2026↑18pp81→99¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Before Aug 11, 2026↓16pp92→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before Aug 11, 2026↑15pp66→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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