Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
Leader sits at 62% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Todd Blanche
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Lee Zeldin
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$26K
liquid
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
993 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
KXNEXTAG-29-RDES
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
KXNEXTAG-29-LZEL
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Jeanine Pirro
KXNEXTAG-29-JPIR
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Harmeet Dhillon
KXNEXTAG-29-HDHI
Analysis
Todd Blanche is currently priced at 62% to become Trump's next Attorney General, with Lee Zeldin at 17% as the runner-up. Blanche's elevated probability likely reflects his prominence as a Trump legal representative and recent visibility. The outcome hinges on Trump's appointment decision, which could occur during his term depending on vacancy circumstances or staffing transitions. Key catalysts include actual departures or announcements from current or future DOJ leadership. Market participants are pricing in Blanche's odds based on perceived proximity to Trump's inner circle and litigation experience. Resolution will occur when Trump formally announces or nominates his choice for the Attorney General position.
- ›Blanche holds substantial recent legal representation experience for Trump across multiple cases
- ›Lee Zeldin's 17% pricing reflects his established political background and prior Trump administration service
- ›No scheduled announcement date is publicly known; resolution depends on when a vacancy or staffing change occurs
- ›Market volume of $16,133 in 24-hour trading on the Blanche contract indicates moderate information flow but concentrated betting
- ›Competing candidates including DeSantis, Zeldin, and Pirro collectively hold 27% implied probability, showing meaningful alternative possibilities
What moved the line
- Apr 26Todd Blanche↑12pp40→52¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Todd Blanche↑8pp52→60¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Lee Zeldin↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Todd Blanche↓7pp60→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Todd Blanche↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.