Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1.39
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Above $1.84
Spread
46pp
contested
24h volume
$210
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
173 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.54 by Dec 31?: Above $1.54
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-1.540
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.39 by Dec 31?: Above $1.39
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-1.390
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.14 by Dec 31?: Above $2.14
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-2.140
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.69 by Dec 31?: Above $1.69
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-1.690
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31?: Above $1.84
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-1.840
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.59 by Dec 31?: Above $2.59
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-2.590
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.44 by Dec 31?: Above $2.44
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-2.440
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.29 by Dec 31?: Above $2.29
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-2.290
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.99 by Dec 31?: Above $1.99
KXA100MAX-26DEC31-1.990
Analysis
This probability reflects whether NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU hourly rental pricing will exceed $1.84 by year-end 2026. The market currently assigns 96% odds to this outcome, though trading volume on the highest-price thresholds ($1.84 and $1.99) is very thin, suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability. The current trajectory and pricing structure for GPU compute capacity, ongoing demand from AI infrastructure buildout, and supply dynamics of enterprise-grade GPUs will determine whether costs rise to or exceed this level. Resolution depends on actual pricing offered by major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) on December 31, 2026. The wide gap between the heavily-traded lower thresholds ($0.04–$0.34, priced at 93–94%) and the headline contract suggests markets see strong probability of moderate price increases but much less certainty about reaching the highest specified tier.
- ›Current A100 SXM4 hourly pricing on major cloud platforms and historical price trajectory from June 2026 through December 2026
- ›Supply and demand dynamics for enterprise GPU capacity, including new GPU model releases and competitive alternatives to the A100 line
- ›Trading volume concentration at lower price thresholds ($0.04–$0.34) versus extremely thin volume at $1.84–$1.99, indicating disagreement about tail probabilities
- ›Definitional precision: which provider's official pricing, which region, and any volume discounts or contractual adjustments will be used for resolution
- ›Year-end 2026 cloud pricing announcements or contract terms from AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure that establish the reference price
What moved the line
- Jul 7Above $2.44↓68pp87→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above $1.69↓48pp55→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Above $1.39↑47pp23→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Above $1.54↓45pp95→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Above $1.99↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 0d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 0d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 0d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.