Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now

Will Apple Inc. report above 164000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 92% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

92%

Above 164000

0¢runner-up 81¢leader 92¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

81¢

Above 166000

Spread

11pp

contested

24h volume

$656

thin orderbook

Closes

—

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Apple Inc. report above 164000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 16400092¢$292 Will Apple Inc. report above 166000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 16600081¢$7 Will Apple Inc. report above 168000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 16800054¢$162 Will Apple Inc. report above 170000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 17000020¢$194

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Apple Inc. report above 1

6 contracts$656

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Apple Inc. report above 164000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 164000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-164000

92¢—$292K→

Will Apple Inc. report above 170000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 170000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-170000

20¢—$194K→

Will Apple Inc. report above 168000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 168000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-168000

54¢—$162K→

Will Apple Inc. report above 166000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 166000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-166000

81¢—$7K→

Will Apple Inc. report above 174000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 174000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-174000

4¢—$1K→

Will Apple Inc. report above 172000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?: Above 172000

KXAAPLA-28JANHEAD-172000

7¢—$0K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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