Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Top contract
97¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary
Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary?: Janeese Lewis George
KXDCMAYORD-26-JGEO
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Janeese Lewis George has an 80% chance of winning the D.C. Democratic mayoral primary in 2026. Lewis George currently holds the D.C. Council seat for Ward 1 and has established name recognition and an incumbent advantage in local politics. The current level reflects her perceived frontrunner status, though meaningful uncertainty remains about the final field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other candidates can consolidate support. The primary will likely occur in spring 2026, and key developments including candidate endorsements, fundraising reports, and polling data in the coming months will substantially shift these probabilities. The relatively tight race between Lewis George and McDuffie (18%) indicates the market views this as competitive despite the current leader's advantage.
- ›Lewis George's current D.C. Council incumbency and Ward 1 electorate base versus McDuffie's status as a councilmember from a different ward
- ›Official primary election date and filing deadline dates in D.C., which determine final candidate participation and timeline for campaign consolidation
- ›Endorsement patterns from sitting council members, labor unions, and established D.C. Democratic Party figures
- ›Public polling data if released, versus current reliance on market expectations and insider assessments
- ›Fundraising totals and spending by each candidate, which correlate with campaign infrastructure and voter outreach capacity
What moved the line
- Jun 18Janeese Lewis George↑9pp89→98¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Janeese Lewis George↓5pp88→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Janeese Lewis George↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Janeese Lewis George↑3pp86→89¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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