Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Valdez wins, Lander wins, Ch
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$44K
liquid
Closes
Oct 31, 2026
129 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier
Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins
KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP-WWW
Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses
KXMAMDANIENDORSE-26SEP-WWL
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Claire Valdez wins the NY-07 Democratic primary, Brad Lander wins the NY-10 Democratic primary, and Darializa Avila Chevalier loses the NY-13 Democratic primary in September 2026. The 40% probability suggests moderate confidence in this specific outcome combination, driven by assumptions about candidate viability and district dynamics in these three New York races. The main variables affecting this probability are each candidate's current polling position, endorsement patterns, fundraising strength, and voter sentiment in their respective districts. The September 2026 primaries will directly resolve these races, with earlier indicators such as campaign spending reports and any public polling updates likely to shift market expectations beforehand. Since this is a three-outcome conjunction, the probability depends on all three individual races moving in the specified directions simultaneously—a more restrictive condition than any single race outcome alone.
- ›Claire Valdez's current standing and momentum relative to other NY-07 Democratic primary candidates
- ›Brad Lander's visibility, fundraising, and endorsements in NY-10 compared to competing Democratic candidates
- ›Darializa Avila Chevalier's vulnerability to primary challenge in NY-13 and whether an opponent with sufficient resources emerges
- ›The concentration of this outcome's probability on Valdez winning and Lander winning, suggesting these two are treated as more likely than other combinations
- ›Campaign finance disclosures and any public polling data released between June and September 2026 as leading indicators of shift
What moved the line
- Jun 24Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins↑40pp26→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins↓19pp42→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses↓18pp61→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses↑14pp47→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses↑11pp29→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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