Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 1.0 to 2.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 5, 2027
355 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 3.0 to 4.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Nithya Raman finishes exactly 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points ahead of Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral primary. The 12% probability reflects that a narrow margin victory in this specific range is one of several possible outcomes, though the overall distribution suggests tighter races are priced lower and wider margins slightly higher. The primary result itself—scheduled for June 2026—will directly resolve this contract. Before then, polling trends, candidate spending, and voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles will inform market expectations about whether these two candidates finish in this particular point spread.
- ›The LA mayoral primary is the direct catalyst event; any current polls suggest Raman and Pratt are not top-tier frontrunners, limiting the probability of them both placing in the final results
- ›Related 1-point-margin contracts are priced at 17¢ (0-1 pt) and 15¢ (2-3 pt), indicating the 1-2 pt range sits between tighter and slightly wider margins in market expectations
- ›Voting patterns in Los Angeles municipal elections, including turnout and geographic support distribution, will determine whether these candidates' margins fall into this specific band rather than others
- ›The combined probability across all Raman-beats-Pratt margins (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 4-5, 5-6 points) appears modest relative to other possible race outcomes
- ›Market volume is concentrated in the 0-1 point range ($1,298), suggesting traders see a close contest between these two as most likely if they both finish in primary calculations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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