What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session

30-day trend

Analysis

This market predicts whether James Talarico, a Texas state representative, will mention a specific topic during his speech at the 2026 Texas Democratic Convention's Friday general session. The 87% probability on the leading outcome suggests traders believe certain statements are highly likely, while the distributed pricing across topics like Trump (23¢), Jesus/God (66¢), and Israel (5¢) reflects uncertainty about which subjects he'll actually address. The market will resolve on June 28, 2026, when the convention occurs and Talarico's remarks either do or do not match the contract specifications. Factors influencing the odds include Talarico's known policy positions and rhetoric patterns, the convention's political context, and whether specific issues become focal points during the event. Trading volume concentration in Trump-related contracts suggests market focus on his likely discussion of prominent political figures.

• ›Talarico's documented public statements and typical speaking patterns from previous Democratic events will inform whether certain topics are statistically likely to appear
• ›The specific wording and resolution criteria (exact phrases like 'endorse,' 'Trump,' or 'Iran') create binary outcomes that depend on precise speech content, not general themes
• ›Convention timing (Friday June 28) is fixed, making this a near-term resolution event with limited time for new information to shift probabilities
• ›Trading volume disparities across contracts suggest market participants have differing confidence levels in different outcomes based on available evidence about Talarico's priorities
• ›The leading contract's 87% probability reflects asymmetric trader conviction, not a consensus view, indicating significant minority positions betting on alternative outcomes

What moved the line

• Jun 27Iran / Iranian↓25pp31→6¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 27Trump↓21pp56→35¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 27Afford / Affordable / Affordability↓19pp54→35¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 27Corrupt / Corruption↑14pp75→89¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 27Billionaire↑9pp69→78¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds