Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026
Leader sits at 37% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chevalier and Bores lose
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Chevalier and Bores win
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$87
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier wins, Bores loses
KXNYPRIMARYCOMBO-26SEP-WL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be victorious in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier loses, Bores wins
KXNYPRIMARYCOMBO-26SEP-LW
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier and Bores lose
KXNYPRIMARYCOMBO-26SEP-LL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be victorious in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Chevalier and Bores win
KXNYPRIMARYCOMBO-26SEP-WW
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the NY-13 primary while simultaneously Alex Bores loses the NY-12 primary in September 2026. The current 37% reading suggests this combined outcome is possible but unlikely. The pricing likely reflects uncertainty about both candidates' fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition relative to their opponents in these adjacent New York districts. The September 2026 primary election itself is the key event that will resolve all uncertainty. Shifts in this probability would typically follow major campaign developments, polling releases if conducted, or endorsements from notable figures in either district. The combination requirement makes this less probable than either outcome independently, since both conditions must be met simultaneously.
- ›Primary election date is scheduled for September 2026; no earlier resolution mechanism exists
- ›NY-13 and NY-12 are distinct races with separate electorates, so outcomes are not perfectly correlated but may share regional political trends
- ›Avila Chevalier's performance depends on her relative position among NY-13 Democratic candidates; Bores' defeat requires a competing candidate to accumulate more votes
- ›Campaign spending, endorsement patterns, and voter contact intensity between now and September will materially affect candidate viability
- ›Both seats' Democratic primary electorate composition and turnout assumptions significantly impact the probability of this specific two-outcome combination
What moved the line
- Jun 24Chevalier wins, Bores loses↑41pp8→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Chevalier and Bores lose↓24pp38→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Chevalier and Bores win↓23pp33→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Chevalier loses, Bores wins↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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