Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 78% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 565 million
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Above 570 million
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 13, 2027
260 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 565 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-565000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 600 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 600 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-600000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 595 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 595 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-595000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 590 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 590 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-590000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 585 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 585 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-585000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 580 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 580 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-580000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 575 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 575 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-575000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 570 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026?: Above 570 million
KXABNBA-27FEBNEB-570000000
Analysis
This market is pricing in slightly better-than-even odds that Airbnb will report at least 565 million nights and experiences booked in fiscal 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about post-pandemic travel demand sustainability and Airbnb's ability to grow bookings amid potential economic headwinds and increased competition in the short-term rental market. The contract pricing suggests meaningful probability distributed across higher thresholds (570M, 575M, 580M), indicating traders see material upside scenarios but view anything above 580 million as unlikely. Resolution depends on Airbnb's fiscal 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, which will provide definitive booking volume data. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting leisure and business travel, regulatory changes in major markets, and Airbnb's success in expanding international bookings and experiences revenue.
- ›Airbnb's 2025 year-to-date booking trends and guidance for remaining fiscal 2026 months
- ›Macro indicators: consumer spending patterns, employment levels, and travel spending forecasts through end of fiscal 2026
- ›Regulatory developments in major markets (Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific) affecting platform availability and pricing
- ›Competitive pressure and market share shifts from traditional hotels and alternative platforms
- ›Airbnb's historical growth rate (565M would represent ~15% growth from 2025 if prior year was ~490M)
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 565 million↓29pp79→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 565 million↑29pp50→79¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 570 million↓21pp64→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 570 million↑21pp43→64¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 575 million↓12pp32→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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