Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 51%, Polymarket at 32% — a 19pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
4 contracts
Polymarket
32%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
19pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
987 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 51¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 19pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (51¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay
Cluster 2
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia
Cluster 3
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia
Cluster 4
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan
Cluster 5
Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner
Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner?: Spain
KXWCGAME-26JUN21ESPKSA-ESP
Cluster 6
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?: Saudi Arabia
0xc806bd…d075
Cluster 7
Where will Mohamed Salah go next
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Saudi Pro League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SAUDI
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia)↓6pp17→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Any Saudi Pro League Club↑5pp50→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Spain↑5pp82→87¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Any Saudi Pro League Club↑3pp47→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Saudi Arabia↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.