Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
940 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan” vs “Where will Mohamed Salah go next”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan
Cluster 2
Where will Mohamed Salah go next
Where will Mohamed Salah go next?: Any Saudi Pro League Club
KXJOINLEAGUE-26OCT02MSALAH-SAUDI
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects market expectations for Al Najmah to win or achieve a specific outcome against Al Taawoun in an upcoming Saudi club match. The significant 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests different market participants weight available information differently, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher likelihood. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head records, and squad availability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played. Current volume is modest, with most trading activity concentrated on higher-liquidity international fixtures (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay), indicating limited certainty among market participants specifically about this club-level matchup.
- ›Cross-venue probability gap of 17pp indicates disagreement between market groups; reconciliation could occur if new information emerges or if one venue's pricing reflects genuine edge
- ›Al Taawoun's recent performance record and current league position relative to Al Najmah; objective metrics like points differential and head-to-head history directly influence rational probability assessment
- ›Squad availability and injury status for both clubs prior to match date; confirmed absences of key players would materially shift expected outcome
- ›Match timing relative to competing fixtures; fixture congestion or recovery time between matches can affect team performance independent of underlying quality
- ›Volume concentration in international rather than club-level contracts suggests this match has lower attention from predictive markets, potentially leaving pricing less efficient than higher-liquidity events
What moved the line
- Jun 23Any Saudi Pro League Club↓7pp60→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Saudi Arabia↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Saudi Arabia↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Saudi Arabia↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.