Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Feb 1, 2027
Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2026
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
159 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-26OCT01
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-27MAR01
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-27FEB01
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-27JAN01
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-26DEC01
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWMIL-26NOV01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Miley Cyrus will release a new album between now and March 1, 2027, with the leading contract priced at 68% for a March 1 deadline versus 56% for February 1. The pricing gap between these two dates suggests traders view a March release as meaningfully more likely than a February one, with most of the expected probability mass falling in that two-week window. The current assessment is driven by Cyrus's historical release patterns and any public announcements or recording activity. A major upcoming catalyst would be any official album announcement, release date confirmation, or indication from her label or social media. Without concrete signals, traders are essentially pricing in base-rate expectations for an artist of her profile during this timeframe.
- ›Miley Cyrus has not made a public album announcement as of July 2026; traders are pricing in an unconfirmed release
- ›The 12-percentage-point gap between the February and March deadlines indicates higher confidence in post-Feb 1 release than immediate release
- ›Her last album 'Endless Summer Vacation' was released in March 2023; release-to-release intervals inform baseline expectations
- ›Trading volume is highest on the Feb 1 contract ($350 24h volume) relative to others, suggesting it is the most actively disputed date
- ›An early September deadline carries only 3% probability, making a 2026 release before fall extremely unlikely in market pricing
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Dec 1, 2026↓21pp96→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Dec 1, 2026↑21pp75→96¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Nov 1, 2026↓20pp95→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Mar 1, 2027↓14pp89→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Feb 1, 2027↓5pp80→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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